Cache o' the Day: Game Face

Double Down

All In

There have been a fair number of gambling phrases used during this election. I think that's an interesting message to send. I will confide in you that I am, actually, a bone fide gambler. It's true! I am one of those folks who got swept up in the Texas Hold 'Em craze of the early '00s. I still play, but not as often as I used to nor as much as I would like. What does this have to do with elections? Well, oddly enough - quite a bit. Not only were many of our former POTUSs active and avid poker players (Nixon, Eisenhower, GW Bush, and Truman, just to name a few.), but our current president is also a player. Here's an old NPR thing about how he used to use these skills to bring people to the table (so to speak) and make deals. If you're going to be a good poker player, you have to give up the idea that any of this is only about luck. Luck is for beginners; seasoned players learn that it is a game of probabilities and math.

Math is also a theme to his year's election. But I digress.

To talk about odds, you have to talk about InTrade. InTrade makes it's business out of making predictions. They use the buying and selling of "stocks" to determine the likelihood someone will win. The higher the price to buy stock, the more likely probability of that event outcome. If you've followed InTrade this election cycle, you'd know that the President has held very high scores for a very long time. Over the course of this month, that number has been tracking steadily down.

Tonight, we're doing all of our pre-game talk around the second presidential debates. The first debate put President Obama on the short-stack. What this means, in poker terms, is that he doesn't have a whole lot more to bet with. When you're the short stack, you're just looking for your opportunity to "get your money in good." What that means is that you look at the hand you're dealt and decide about the odds you have for winning with this hand. Getting your money in good means that you've picked the right spot, the right time, and in some cases, the right opponent. If you win, you'll "double up" and live to fight another day. If you lose - and here's where the game has broken many a heart - the game is over for you.

Make no mistake about it. Mr. Obama is at this very moment hoping that he will get his money in good during tonight's debate. The rest is just a question of odds. Odds that he will win the debate, true. But bigger than that, what are the odds he can still win this election?

I will be watching these numbers tonight, live as the debates happen. I will let you know where we land.

One poker player to the next, Mr. President? It's time to go all in. We'll sweat the cards with you.